A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
